vir non camelus est.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007


The Black Fish will meet Deja Vu in a massive semi-final at 9:00pm on Thursday 6th September on court three.

Sunday, September 2, 2007

Minor Round Statistics

As the Fish prepare for some September action, it is an opportune time to look at some of the stats that have emerged from Winter Season 2007:

Win:loss - 10-7-1

Average winning margin (95% CI) - 6.89 points (1.4, 12.4)

Average losing margin - 9.13 points (4.7, 13.6)

Highest winning margin - 21 points (Round 21 - Spectrum)

Highest losing margin - 17 points (Round 16 - Red Dwarfs)

A logistic regression analysis was performed to examine factors predictive of a Black Fish victory. All 17 games in which a win or loss was recorded were included in the analysis. Following univariate analysis, a multivariate model was constructed using backwards elimination. Some interesting results were obtained:

1. Despite the Fish winning 5 of their 6 games played on court 2, there was no statistical relationship between the court and the odds of winning (p=0.248, Fisher's exact).

2. The Fish played 10 matches without a player on the bench, winning only 4 of these games. In contrast, they won 6 of the 7 games in which more than 5 players were available. Therefore, the odds of a victory were 9 times higher when an interchange player was available. This relationship was not statistically significant, however (p=0.082, Fisher's exact).

3. The presence of powerhouse forward Rodgers (N) increased the odds of victory by 33%, however this also failed to reach statistical significance (p=0.581, Fisher's exact).

4. The multivariate model revealed only one statistically significant predictive factor, after accounting for all other predictor variables. And the result may come as a surprise to some (but perhaps not to all). The presence of utility Downing (K), significantly increased the odds of a Black Fish victory when all other predictors were taken into account. KD increased the odds of victory tenfold (!), 95% CI (1.05, 95.5), p=0.045.

Make of that what you will.

Round 21: BF v Spectrum ("Dunk Night")

A makeshift Black Fish side strode onto court 1 for the final minor round game with a place in the finals all but assured. Complacency, however, was far from their collective consciousness, thanks to their inherent Black Fish pride, their disdain for their gnomesque opponents, and their desire to run into the finals on a three-match winning streak.

While the game was far from a spectacle, and the result was beyond doubt early in the first half, there were several notable aspects to the match:

1. The impressive debut by little-known journeyman Baum (D).

2. The absence of Spectrum's pathetic, bitch-kicking, patch-wearing trisomy chimera (omitted due to a courage deficiency).

3. A scoring spree by Downing (K) [2 points].

4. The sublime mid-range shooting of Weeks (R).

5. The Fish's greatest winning margin of the season.

6. And most notably, the total dominance of the game by spectacular new recruit Whittle (N), who helped himself to a commanding 23 points before sealing the deal in spectacular style with a first in 14 years of Black Fish history - a stunning end-to-end run on the fast break culminating in a massive slam dunk. An act that spoke clearly in a language all its own: 'take that, you fat bunch of cripples'. Special stuff, that.

And so, with a comfortable 47-26 win under their belts, the Fish prepare to enter their first ever finals campaign at MARS. Having beaten every other team in the top four at least once this season the Fish enter the finals with a great deal of confidence. Stay tuned early next week for the announcement of the game time and the Fish's semi-final opponent.

Go you mighty Black Fish!

Round 20: Bye

The entire Black Fish squad spent the week not writing a match report.