As the Fish prepare for some September action, it is an opportune time to look at some of the stats that have emerged from Winter Season 2007:
Win:loss - 10-7-1
Average winning margin (95% CI) - 6.89 points (1.4, 12.4)
Average losing margin - 9.13 points (4.7, 13.6)
Highest winning margin - 21 points (Round 21 - Spectrum)
Highest losing margin - 17 points (Round 16 - Red Dwarfs)
A logistic regression analysis was performed to examine factors predictive of a Black Fish victory. All 17 games in which a win or loss was recorded were included in the analysis. Following univariate analysis, a multivariate model was constructed using backwards elimination. Some interesting results were obtained:
1. Despite the Fish winning 5 of their 6 games played on court 2, there was no statistical relationship between the court and the odds of winning (p=0.248, Fisher's exact).
2. The Fish played 10 matches without a player on the bench, winning only 4 of these games. In contrast, they won 6 of the 7 games in which more than 5 players were available. Therefore, the odds of a victory were 9 times higher when an interchange player was available. This relationship was not statistically significant, however (p=0.082, Fisher's exact).
3. The presence of powerhouse forward Rodgers (N) increased the odds of victory by 33%, however this also failed to reach statistical significance (p=0.581, Fisher's exact).
4. The multivariate model revealed only one statistically significant predictive factor, after accounting for all other predictor variables. And the result may come as a surprise to some (but perhaps not to all). The presence of utility Downing (K), significantly increased the odds of a Black Fish victory when all other predictors were taken into account. KD increased the odds of victory tenfold (!), 95% CI (1.05, 95.5), p=0.045.
Make of that what you will.
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